Is Armenia Hedging or Pivoting in Its Foreign and Security Policies?

Abstract

Recently, the discourse about the transformation of foreign and security policies of Armenia, a small state facing significant security challenges, has been intensifying. International officials, political figures and academics have been debating whether Armenia is in the process of “pivoting” or “changing its vector” towards European or even Euro-Atlantic integration. They question whether Armenia has irreversibly turned away from Russia and started a path of Euro-Atlantic integration, or it is maneuvering between power centers and diversifying its partners to reduce its dependence on Russia? Others question how Armenia can defend its territorial integrity and statehood in a volatile geopolitical environment facing conventional defence threats by Azerbaijan and Turkey and hybrid threats by Russia? Are Armenia’s newly shaping aspirations for EU membership realistic and will they contribute to Armenia’s security or jeopardize it further? Can Armenia ever have NATO membership aspirations given its lack of diplomatic relations with Turkey and difficulties of its normalization? If not, can it be viable as a neutral state if it formally exits CSTO and military alliance with Russia having already de facto suspended its membership in the CSTO and having tense bilateral relationship with Russia with its increasing alignment with Azerbaijan that puts never ending pre-conditions before Armenia for concluding a peace agreement and threatening with a new war?