NATO in a Shifting Geopolitical Order: The China-Russia Axis and Regional Securitisation

Abstract

This paper explores NATO’s evolving securitisation strategies concerning Russia and China in the post-pandemic world. Drawing on securitisation theory, the study employs a mixed-methods approach to analyse NATO’s discourse and strategic posture across three regions: the North Atlantic, the South Atlantic, and the Indo-Pacific. Quantitative content analysis of official NATO speeches (2020–2024) identifies recurring themes and discursive shifts, revealing how the Alliance constructs Russia and China as existential threats. The qualitative phase further contextualises these patterns through document analysis and expert interviews. The findings demonstrate that NATO intensified its securitisation of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, reaffirming the North Atlantic as its central strategic theatre. Concurrently, the Indo-Pacific gained prominence in NATO's discourse, with China increasingly framed as a revisionist power, prompting deeper cooperation with regional partners. In contrast, the South Atlantic remains marginal in NATO’s official narrative, although securitisation occurs indirectly via member states’ activities and cooperation frameworks. The study highlights NATO’s adaptation to a multipolar security environment, revealing a strategic recalibration shaped by both regional dynamics and global rivalries. Ultimately, the research offers new insights into how NATO constructs threats and extends its strategic presence beyond the Euro-Atlantic space.